How Next-Gen Video Codecs Impact AVIF's Future

The AVIF image format, derived from the AV1 video codec, currently represents the cutting edge of web image compression, but its long-term future is closely tied to the evolution of video compression technology. Because modern still-image formats increasingly originate from intra-frame coding techniques developed for video, the rapid emergence of next-generation codecs like AV2 and VVC (Versatile Video Coding) directly threatens AVIF's dominance. This article examines how ongoing video codec advancements will challenge AVIF’s compression supremacy, influence hardware acceleration lifecycles, and shape the eventual adoption of successor formats.

The Historic Link Between Video Codecs and Still Images

Most modern image formats did not emerge in isolation; they are byproducts of video compression standards. WebP was extracted from the VP8 video codec, HEIC/HEIF originated from HEVC (H.265), and AVIF was created by utilizing intra-frame compression from the royalty-free AV1 codec developed by the Alliance for Open Media (AOMedia).

Because video standards evolve faster than standalone image formats due to immense streaming bandwidth demands, image formats derived from video codecs carry a built-in obsolescence risk. As soon as a foundational video codec matures, its successor begins development, immediately starting the countdown for the associated image format.

Emerging Codecs: The Direct Competitors

Two primary next-generation video codecs currently influence the trajectory of AVIF:

• AOMedia Video 2 (AV2): The direct successor to AV1, currently under active development. AV2 aims for a 20% to 30% bit-rate reduction over AV1. A future "AVIF 2" based on AV2 will naturally offer far superior image fidelity at smaller file sizes than the original AVIF.
• Versatile Video Coding (VVC / H.266): Developed by the Joint Video Experts Team (JVET), VVC demonstrates roughly 30% to 50% better compression efficiency than HEVC and outperforms AV1 in many scenarios. VVC-based still image profiles provide higher fidelity than AVIF at ultra-low bitrates, especially for high-resolution photography and wide-gamut imagery.

Acceleration and Hardware Ecosystem Challenges

AVIF's primary real-world advantage is hardware decoding support integrated into modern mobile chips, GPUs, and web browsers, thanks to the widespread adoption of AV1. However, next-generation video codecs change hardware priorities:

1. Silicon Real Estate: Chipmakers prioritize silicon space for newly standardized video codecs. As VVC and eventually AV2 hardware decoders are integrated into consumer devices, AVIF will no longer represent the fastest or most energy-efficient format to decode on cutting-edge hardware.
2. Encoding Bottlenecks: AVIF already suffers from high computational encoding costs compared to legacy formats like JPEG and WebP. Next-generation codecs increase computational complexity significantly. While they promise better compression, encoding an image format based on AV2 or VVC will demand even more processing power, potentially extending AVIF's utility in real-time or low-compute production environments.

The Threat of a Shortened Lifespan

JPEG dominated the web for decades due to lack of viable alternatives, but the rapid turnover in video codecs prevents modern formats from establishing similar longevity. AVIF is just beginning to achieve ubiquitous browser support and platform adoption.

The arrival of next-generation video codecs risks turning AVIF into a transitional format rather than a permanent standard. If developers and platforms face the choice of transitioning their infrastructure to AVIF today or waiting for a more efficient, AV2-based format or native VVC implementation tomorrow, many may skip AVIF adoption altogether or maintain hybrid ecosystems indefinitely.

The Road Ahead for AVIF

AVIF remains highly competitive for the immediate future due to its royalty-free status, active browser support, and superior efficiency over JPEG and WebP. However, its ceiling is already defined by AV1's architecture. As next-generation video codecs finalize their specifications and establish hardware footprints, AVIF will steadily shift from being the cutting edge of image delivery to an established baseline, paving the way for the next wave of video-derived image formats.